Update: An astute reader pointed out to me that I didn’t include Dillon Gee. Why? Well that’s because I simply because his named managed to escape my mind while thinking of a 100 others. Although, it’s worth nothing that Gee had a year almost as dominating as Dylan Owen after compiling a 22.4% K rate and 3.6% BB Rate.

Given how dominating he was and the fact he was a collegiate pitcher, I have him heading to St. Lucie to start the year in place of Waechter. Waechter, did however, have a very successful year at Brooklyn, which makes it highly unlikely he repeats the level. Therefore, I have the 23 year old following a similar path of Tobi Stoner’s in 2008; staeting out at Savannah, and moving up to st. Lucie within a month or two. Vineyard, meanwhile, is the likely candidate to start in extended spring training and possible begin 2008 in Brooklyn.

Sorry for the huge gap between today’s post and my last one. i’ve been in school for about  a week now, and I’ve barely had any time to catch a ballgame, let alone keep the blog updated.

Since I happened to have some free time, I tried my best to conjecture what the 2008 opening day minor league rosters will look like. Here’s my first of many, many attemps I’ll probably make at this:

New Orleans

1B: Carp

2B: Hernandez

3B: Kiger

SS: Rivera

OF: Coles

OF: Hill

OF: Gomez

C: Arroyo

DH: Stewart

Rotation:

Humber

Mulvey

Bostick

Parnell

Vargas

Binghamton

1B: Evans

2B: Malo

3B. Murphy

SS: Coronado

OF: Martinez

OF: Wabick

OF: Holden

C: Nickeas

DH: Clark

Rotation:

Ruckle

Devaney

Niese

Stoner

Brown

St. Lucie:

1B: Thole

2B: Pellot

3B: Jimenez

SS: Garcia

OF: Maldanado

OF: R. Pena

OF: Kawal

C: McCraw

DH: Jacobs

Rotation:

Guerra

Owen

Durkin

Stinson

Gee

Savannah:

1B: Duda

2B: Veloz

3B: Lucas

SS: Lagares

OF: Carrera

OF: Reyes

OF: Zavala

C: F. Pena

DH: Zapata

Rotation:

Carr

Moviel

Dlouhy

Waechter

Polanco

A lot to digest. I didn’t bother taking a shot at the bullpen and bench of course, (although as you may’ve guessed, I strongly considered doing so) A lot of it is subjective, and of course, it’s my personal opinion.

 I’m prepared to handle any questions at: matthimelfarb@gmail.com

I decided to start out with John Sickels rankings from Minor League Ball, since after all, his site is where I got the idea from. Instead of looking back at Sickel’s pre-season rankins for all 30 teams, we’re going to look at all the notable Mets rankings fabricated last off-season.

I can’t post the comments/blurbs that came with each player so I don’t break any copyright laws, but here are his rankings:

1. Fernando Martinez

2. Mike Pelfrey

3. Philip Humber

4. Carlos Gomez

5. Jon Niese

6. Deolis Guerra

7. Kevin mulvey

8. Joe Smith

9. Mike Carp

10. Alay Soler

11. Adam Bostick

12. Josh Stinson

13. Sean Henry

14. Mike Devaney

15. Nick Evans

16. Shawn Bowman

17. Michel Abreu

18. Stephen Holmes

19. Tobi Stoner

20. Brandon Nall

21. Dustin Martin

Hard to really knock Sickels since his rankings were likely pretty similar to a lot of other people’s, although there are certainly far more mistakes than solid picks.

One of the main ways I judge these publications is by their foresight. So here’s how I look at his list: Humber didn’t make too much progress, by so many people had him high up so I can’t blame him for that. His comments on Niese were, “Projectable lefty is a personal favorite”. His stuff, particulary his curve improved, but I believe that Sickels was among the group that expected Niese to really break out, and his ceiling is still very much in doubt- more so than last year- this season. Bobby Parnell was include on his “others of note list,” and he’s now arguably a top 10 prospect in the Mets system, but there wasn’t much to suggests he’d make as much progress as he has this year aside from the fact he was slowed by an oblique strain with Hagerstown in 2006. Stephen Holmes unexpectedly quite baseball, believe to be the result of one of his friends’ suicide.

So, to wrap this up, the real mistakes were Shawn Bowman at 16. I can see why, having wrote this in December, he expected better things after Bowman won player of the month award in November in the Nicaragua league, but a thrid straight year of back injuries has his carrer seriously in doubt. Nick Evans is better than all the players listed above him going up th number 10, while Brandon Nall seems like he’ll be a non factor this stage. Daniel Murphy was nowhere to be found, nor was Jacob Ruckle, who really should’ve been.

So, Sickels didn’t mange to make too many accurate predictions, but this isn’t to say he’s a bad analyst by any stretch, he just caught a bit of a tough break with the Mets.

I have Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus left to go. If you know of any others, please let me know.

After splitting yesterday’s doubleheader with Sarasota, the St. Lucie Mets moved within 2.5 games of first place Brevard County. Jonathan Niese won his third straight decison, going seven innings and allowing just three hits, no walks, while compiling six strikeouts.

Now, for those that follow this blog, I don’t divert too much attention to minor league team’s playoff pushes or game by game recaps, simply because in most cases, a minor league team’s success is largely the result a collaborative effort of the entire team, often player’s who’re too old for their perspect level not just one or two prospects who’re really the only one’s with a realistic chance of making the big leagues in the near future.

But right now, the St. Lucie Mets, despite losing their two most hyped prospect in Deolis Guerra and Jose Castro for the rest of the season, are doing so because of the contributions of many mid-level, if not overlooked prospects:

Daniel Murphy: After seeing no time in the field with Kinsport and Brooklyn last year following a serious leg injury he sustained at Jacksonville, Murphy has been playing full time at third base for A+ St. Lucie thus far. He came in with the pedigree of a very good average hitter and adept to getting on-base, similar to Missouri Sate third baseman and 2006 Marlins first round pick Chris Coghlan. He’s heated up the last few months, posting a .337/.359/.547 line in July, and so far in August, he’s only improved, putting up.417/.523/.750. to give him a .785 OPS. on the year. His LD% is slgihtly below the league average, but Murphy has shown power, (.152 ISOP)  look for him to head to Binghamton next year.

Jonathon Niese: Overlooked by Guerra, Humber, and Pelfrey, Niese has taken similar strides pitching wise as Murphy has over the last two months, cracking the 20% strikeout rate in both July and August. His curveball has become a plus pitch, and when he commands it well, Niese can look unhittable at times. Throw in the fact he’s been unlucky this year, (3.15 eRA. .335 BABIP) and he’s quickly moving up my prospect rankings.

The Rest: Nick Evans has come down to earth in August, (.146/.217/.244) after a blistering July (.386/.500/.699.)) His plate discipline, (41 to 52 BB/K ratio) makes him an intriguing prospect to watch. Jacob Ruckle cotniues to rely on the soft stuff and unorthodox delivery to yield nice results. (3.48 era. 4.2% BB rate.)

The word is right now that Deolis Guerra will probably be shut down for the year. The Mets are probably just being cuatious with him, and while it’s fair to say he’s injury prone, people forget that he still is 18 years old. Although, it’d have been nice to see Guerra more of this year, I can’t see how at his age it’s killing his development.

Jacob Ruckle, who recently returned to the rotation for A+ St. Lucie, threw just two innings of work before leaving with some slight tightness behind his shoulder. Doesn’t seem to be anything serious at this point.