About

Let me start off by saying that my evaluations of prospects is at a constant battle with my naiiveness.

 I had been to games, listened to the BS commentators each and every night. (Joe Morgan, cough, cough.) I read most of Bill James’s baseball abstracts, stocked my drawers with notebooks inundated with rankings, and I’ve even enjoyed the chance to talk with several beat writers.

 Than in February of 2007, I was invited, despite a slew of pitiful attempts to keep several blogs running, to write at www.flushinguniversity.com to pursue my dream of covering politics. (Yeah not baseball, but it’s a start) But when I got there, I realized that reading every publication and perspective out there wasn’t enough, and just like blogs, I was forced to cherry pick what I was going to believe and what I’d declare worthless, and I ultimately ended up compiling my own blueprint. I hate to call it that, since the word blueprint sounds too organized and permanent for my taste, but unless you’re intrested in giving the benefit of the doubt to every prospect in baseball, you better go by a few rules:

A single deficiency can’t dispell a prospects future: A lot of times, you might hear me emphasize how the actual results of one glaring deficiency- let’s use tommy john surgery as an example- of a prospect can be detrimental, but if you’re only intrested in limiting the talent pool, than you’re not going to be successful in the prospect ranking industry. I’ll discuss the negative effects of surgery for pitchers later, but for every deficiency, there’s always an exception. Case in point, Philip Humber might seem like the player, once you come to know me, that I generally dislike, but considering he has a knockout curveball and excellent control, I’m going to rank him up there with everyone else because I know there’s a pretty good chance that, despite the odds, other intangibles of his will help him overcome his setbacks.

 Balance between talent and stats in the minor leagues:  Talent versus statistics will be debated for all eternity. Will the talent ever pan out to its supposed potential? Will the numbers display a same level of consistency in the future? By even using a balance between the two, you probably will end up being called a stat-head by some. And it usually results in the same conclusion:  You have a billion examples in your favor; I have a billion examples in mine.

The best way, in my opinion, is to have a balance between the two, but just like everything else, it needs to be mushed together between a lot of factors. Generally, I like to use the formula strikeout rate*2- Walk Rate to determine a pitching prospects future. (This formula has a few glitches, whic I’ll get to later) Walk totals can certainly be improved upon with maturity, while strikeout rates are hard to even mantain. This is why prospects such as Frankie Morales and Jacob Mcgee look better through my watch. I’m alos a believer in the idea of pitcher’s can get lucky/unlucky, and therefore, I use BABIP and FIP quite often.

 However, this doesn’t mean statistics are irrelevant in evaluating prospects, especially position players.   First and foremost, plate discpline is the number one factor in determining a prospects future. You can simply calculate a player’s K/BB ratio, (or B/KK ratio if you want to be picky)Plate discipline can rarely be taught, and control of the strike zone is the best indicator of big league success.

 In addition, while many prospects don’t put up big home run totals, there’s a very good chance to within time, a good hitting prospects power might materialize. However, that assumption cannot be taken too literally, and that’s where stats come into play. Many hitters who have a knack for hitting extra-base hits will eventually transcend into power hitters. Several metrics you can use to determine this are ISOP, (Isolated power percentage) as well as XBH%. (Extra-Base hit percentage.)

 The weakness in using strikeout rate*2-walk rate- There’s nothing wrong with using this metric as a key indicator in determining a pitching prospects’ future, but as always, we must revert to rule #1, and acknowledge that this metric does discriminate against several pitchers. Not a lot pitchers can successfully pitch to contact, (Wang, Halladay Webb) but those who do have similar but special trates. Their most blatant advantage is their ability to induce ground ball’s, which is why Tigers pitching prospect Dallas Trahern is part of a limited group that stands a very good chance at big league success. Not to mention, while pitchers such as Jacob Ruckle might not turn into aces, they still have a good chance at big league success because of their deceptice delievery.

 GB% isn’t limited to hitters: Believe it or not, this is an inefficiency that I suggest you start implementing in your fantasy leagues. Many top prospect ranking industry’s, such as Baseball America, routinely praise hitter’s like Cameron Maybin. The truth is, many hitting prospects take advantage of the bad fielders and playing fields in the minor leagues, and put up high batting averages by routinely hitting ground ball’s. However, this strategy cannot work in the long run, as not only will the fielder’s improve, but you actually have to HIT and make solid contact in order to have success in the big leagues.

 Last but not least……

Correlation between age and level: While writing for F.U. the past few months, i learned a valuable lesson. I contradicted many analyzers, (not that that is a bad thing) by saying that Carlos Gomez would be a complete bust. While it has yet to be seen wether Carlos Gomez really fulfills his potential, I failed to take into account that Gomez skipped High-A last year and was 20 years old while playing in advancec competition last year. That’s not to say all prospects who’re below the average age at there perspective level will be successful, but it’s just one more factor to look at.

Here are the 2006 League Averages. This is not only useful for evaluating correlation between age and level, but also things such as Park Factor and Competition:

• Gulf Coast League (RK): .247/.323/.342
• Arizona League (RK): .265/.355/.373
• Appalachian League (RK): .255/.334/.369
• Pioneer League (RK): .265/.348/.391
• New York Penn League (SS): .242/.313/.334
• Northwest League (SS): .251/.325/.366
• Midwest League (A-): .254/.325/.366
• South Atlantic League (A-): .255/.331/.376
• California League (A+): .276/.350/.414
• Carolina League (A+): .257/.336/.384
• Florida State League (A+): .255/.327/.376
• Eastern League (AA): .252/.323/.381
• Southern League (AA): .250/.323/.368
• Texas League (AA): .269/.344/.418
• International League (AAA): .259/.326/.390
• Pacific Coast League (AAA): .271/.342/.416

 With that being said, that isn’t what this blog is all about. It’s about the love of the Brooklyn Cyclones this summer. Let’s Go Cyclones!