I decided to start out with John Sickels rankings from Minor League Ball, since after all, his site is where I got the idea from. Instead of looking back at Sickel’s pre-season rankins for all 30 teams, we’re going to look at all the notable Mets rankings fabricated last off-season.
I can’t post the comments/blurbs that came with each player so I don’t break any copyright laws, but here are his rankings:
1. Fernando Martinez
2. Mike Pelfrey
3. Philip Humber
4. Carlos Gomez
5. Jon Niese
6. Deolis Guerra
7. Kevin mulvey
8. Joe Smith
9. Mike Carp
10. Alay Soler
11. Adam Bostick
12. Josh Stinson
13. Sean Henry
14. Mike Devaney
15. Nick Evans
16. Shawn Bowman
17. Michel Abreu
18. Stephen Holmes
19. Tobi Stoner
20. Brandon Nall
21. Dustin Martin
Hard to really knock Sickels since his rankings were likely pretty similar to a lot of other people’s, although there are certainly far more mistakes than solid picks.
One of the main ways I judge these publications is by their foresight. So here’s how I look at his list: Humber didn’t make too much progress, by so many people had him high up so I can’t blame him for that. His comments on Niese were, “Projectable lefty is a personal favorite”. His stuff, particulary his curve improved, but I believe that Sickels was among the group that expected Niese to really break out, and his ceiling is still very much in doubt- more so than last year- this season. Bobby Parnell was include on his “others of note list,” and he’s now arguably a top 10 prospect in the Mets system, but there wasn’t much to suggests he’d make as much progress as he has this year aside from the fact he was slowed by an oblique strain with Hagerstown in 2006. Stephen Holmes unexpectedly quite baseball, believe to be the result of one of his friends’ suicide.
So, to wrap this up, the real mistakes were Shawn Bowman at 16. I can see why, having wrote this in December, he expected better things after Bowman won player of the month award in November in the Nicaragua league, but a thrid straight year of back injuries has his carrer seriously in doubt. Nick Evans is better than all the players listed above him going up th number 10, while Brandon Nall seems like he’ll be a non factor this stage. Daniel Murphy was nowhere to be found, nor was Jacob Ruckle, who really should’ve been.
So, Sickels didn’t mange to make too many accurate predictions, but this isn’t to say he’s a bad analyst by any stretch, he just caught a bit of a tough break with the Mets.
I have Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus left to go. If you know of any others, please let me know.
Filed under: Adam Bostick, Bobby Parnell, Carlos Gomez, Daniel Murphy, Deolis Guerra, Fernando Martinez, Jacob Ruckle, John Sickels, Kevin Mulvey, Mike Carp, Mike Pelfrey, Minor League Ball, Nick Evans, Philip Humber, Sean Henry, Tobi Stoner, baseball, brandon nall, mets, new york mets, shawn bowman
