Yes, it’s been only a little more than two weeks since the trade deadline passed, but having been handed some new information regarding Mets prospects who would’ve been possibly dealt had Omar Minaya gotten caught up in the trade winds, I thought at the very least, I’d take my share of second guesses at what Omar should/shouldn’t have done.
The Mets never seemed to be as zealous about Eric Gagne as the Red Sox, among other teams, seemed to be leading up to the deadline. Contrary to popular belief, the Red Sox really didn’t seem to give up too much, prompting skeptics to wonder whether Texas rangers GM Jon Daniels would’ve been better off holding out for the draft picks:
Red Sox Recieved:
RHRP Eric Gagne
Rangers Recieve:
OF Engel Beltre
OF David Murphy
RHSP Kason Gabbard
Whether the Ragners would’ve been able to accept a similar deal from the Mets is debatable; Beltre has an OPS. of .787 since joining the AZL Rangers, but his plate discipline still looks bad, so you would have to think the Mets could have just as easily substituted Juan Leagarus or Greg Veloz. Gabbard is really the only non-replaceable player out of that group, given the fact his GB tendencies, (56% GB%) suit him well for Texas and the Mets best GB pitchers- Bobby Parnell, Jonathon Niese- still have a long way to go before they reach Gabbard’s level. Nevertheless, Gagne hasn’t nearly lived up to expectations in Boston, (7 ER in 4 innings, but 5.52 FIP) so the draft picks might’ve been the only way the deal would’ve turned out in the Mets favor, unless perhaps giving up Carlos Gomez was necessary, as some reports suggested.
Not dealing Gomez on top of Philip Humber for Chad Cordero was common sense at the time and looks more so now. But for the sake of conversation, let’s look at what would’ve happened had Jim Bowden accepted Minaya’s original offer of Humber for Cordero.
There’s been conflicting on Humber all year long. I had higher hopes for him early on, and I believed calling up Jorge Sosa over Humber was absoulutely ridiculous at one at point as well, but like many people, I soured on him after that. His 12-6 curveball, while showing occasional flashes of dominance, but for the most part, it’s been very consistent and he leaves it up in the zone far too often. His FB, while thought to touch the mid 90’s, has been in the low 90’s for the better part of the year. The stark dropoff in velocity isn’t as unbelieveable as most people might find it; here’s a quote from BP’s Will Carroll’s “Saving the Pitcher:
“I cannot overemphasize the importance of using rotator cuff exercises in a pro-active manner. Studies conducted at the Kerlan-Jobe Clinic reveal scary numbers: while 86 percent of athletes see significant results from rotator cuff surgery, 77 percent report continued difficulty throwing and pain with overhead throwing a year after the surgery. Since pitching is an activity with a small window for success—most major league pitchers are between 24 and 34 years old—losing a year or more to injury has a cumulative effect and can never be regained.”….
“Pitchers often say they “come back stronger” after surgery. This is always false. A pitcher will feel like he’s throwing harder because he became accustomed to throwing with reduced velocity as his injury progressed. It’s quite possible that some, if not many, major league pitchers have never been at 100 percent. Much of the improvement they will see is attributable to the forced work of rehab.”
Now, some people will still argue that even with all the adversaries Humber is facing, they would not have pulled the trigger if they were Minaya on a Humber- Cordero deal, since giving up any pitching prospect with even some some potential isn’t worth the affect a reliever will likely have on a ballclub.
I originally thought the opposite. After all, with four starters slotted for the rotation next year, (Maine, Perez, Pedro, Hernandez) along with the possibility of Pelfrey/FA signing, wouldn’t Cordero be more valuable to the Mets than Humber would be, at least within the near future? Than, an article by Michael Salfino popped up on SNY a few days back.
Quote:
I was unable to find any studies that looked at broader samplings of pitchers switching roles. So, I did my best to compile non-selective lists of current and recent pitchers who converted from starter to reliever and vice versa.
The starters turned relievers were Miguel Batista, Tim Wakefield, Dustin Hermanson, Dennis Eckersely, Chris Reitsma, Tom Gordon, Dannys Baez, Keith Foulke, Ryan Dempster, Eddie Guardardo, Joe Nathan, LaTroy Hawkins, Jason Ishringhausen, Eric Gagne, Aaron Heilman and Mariano Rivera. Through 2006, they totaled over 11,000 innings as starters and 7,000 as relievers.
On average after the switch to the shorter role, their hits per nine innings declined 18 percent, their Ks improved 37 percent, walks declined by 19 percent and ERA improved by 29 percent.
The relievers turned starters were John Smoltz (I only used Smoltz’s closer and post-closer stats), Byung-Hyun Kim, Derek Lowe, Kelvim Escobar, Johan Santana, Danny Graves and Francisco Liriano. We had about 3,450 starter innings and 2,040 reliever innings here. The effects were reversed, but not in equal measure: hits increased eight percent, Ks declined 18 percent, walks increased 10 percent, ERA increased 14 percent.
I’m confident in stating that if you take a starter and put him in the bullpen, he’ll likely pitch significantly better.”
Salfino went out to note that while Sosa hasn’t been successful in the past as a reliever, he’s a different pitcher now, and as Ron Darling noted with his two pitch combo, he has the chance to pitch just fine in that role. Salfino went on to project Sosa’s stats for a full season, and it certainly didn’t turn out to be a bad line: 80 innings pitched, 68 hits, 59 Ks, 27 BBs, 3.22 ERA.
Deadling Humber for Cordero wouldn’t have hurt too much, but considering they might have just gotten equal production by switching Sosa’s role, while keeping Humber, the Mets don’t look too bad now, do they?
Omar is a friggin genious.
Filed under: Philip Humber, Uncategorized
