Where Does Guerra Rank?

Baseball America released its’ top prospects by position today, with Francisco Pena, Fernando Martinez, and Deolis Guerra all pacing the top 10 of their perspective positions.

Over a month ago, I did a peice on where exactly F-Mart should rank among the games top minor league outfielders, using a balance between current performance and taking into consideration the correlation between age and level. I didn’t, however, include A-Ball outfielders Chris Marrero and Travis Snider, who were both ranked ahead of F-Mart in BA’s rankings. But that’s for anonther day.

I decided to use a similar format to determine where Deolis Guerra ranks among the games top pitching prospects. Only due to the quanity of pitching prospects in comparision to outfielders, I included several more players.

Group A: Philip Hughes, Clay Buchholz, Joba Chamberlain, Homer Bailey

All four of the pitchers listed above have simply reached an elite level that, particulary in the case of pitchers, simply cannot be compared to Guerra. I can see why people might make the argument that, with Bailey’s significant drop in his strikeout rate, (21.2%) and the fact that Bailey was two years older than Guerra when he was in the FSL, but contrary to popular belief, when Bailey has command of his changeup and curveball, it’s simply unhittable, and it’s always been my belief that strikeout rates should be weighted twice as heavily as walk rates, since walk rates can easily be improved upon while strikoeut rates are hard to even maintain. Throw in the fact so many things can happen to Guerra over the next four years, and Bailey has a clear edge.

Group B: Clayton Kershaw, Tommy Hansen, Jacob McGee, Brett Anderson

The players I have in group B are all on par with or a level below Guerra.

Clayton Kershaw might be a year older, but his strikeout rate is through the roof, (32.4%) and his ceiling is similar to that of Hughes three years ago.

Thomas Hanson also enjoyed a tremendous first half in the Sally League earlier this year, but while it’s hard to consider him old for his league, (21) he certainly wasn’t young. It’s close, but I’ll give Guerra the nod.

Not too many people would’ve put Wade Davis ahead of Jacob McGee coming into this year, but McGee stuff has put an asterisk next to his otherwise exceelent year in the FSL. McGeee is three years older than guerra and in the FSL, and yet Guerra’s sinking change and improving slider makes for a better array of secondary offerings than McGee.

Brett Anderson’s below average stuff seems to be catching up to him in A+, (5.25 era., but .373 BABIP) and while he might gget by on his microscopic BB rate, (5.6%) Guerra’s future looks much brighter right now.

Group C: Adam Miller, Eric Hurley, Justin Masterson, Mike Bowden, Ian Kennedy, Wade Davis, Gio Gonzalez

Miller would’ve easily been placed in Group A coming into this year, but less than desirable results have him here. Make no mistake, Miller still has potential, but I’m going to give guerra the benefit of the doubt that, at 18, he’ll easily reach Miller’s success level at AA by the time he’s 21, which, ultiamtely, makes me place him above Wade Davis, as well as Mike Bowden.

Eric Hurley has also hit a bump in the road in AAA, and he offers just three above average offerings. Yes, the same was said of Yovanni Gallardo, but Hurley hasn’t gotten anywhere close to Gallardo’s success level in the minors.

Justin Masterson may’ve turned a corner since arriving at AA, (31.3% K rate) but considering his 13% K Rate with A+ Lancaster, we might just be looking at a small sample size.

despite repeating AA, I’m going to give Gio Gonzalez the edge, as the result of both his secondary stuff, and that his 29% K rate is where we hope Guerra will be down the road.

Ian Kennedy has achieved far more statistical success, regardless of his below average stuff.

Without further ado, here’s where Guerra ranks:

1. Philip Hughes

2. Clay Buchholz

3. Joba Chamberlain

4. Homer Bailey

5. Clayton Kershaw

6. Gio Gonzalez

7. Deolis Guerra