Mike Pelfrey to the Bullpen?

 

At Flushing University, Joe Janish, whom I disagree with on nearly on every issue but have great respect for nonetheless, follows up on his relentless attemtps to get Aaron Heilman in the rotation, this time lobbying for him swapping roles with Aaron Heilman.

After hearing that the AAA coaching staff had worked on his slider down in New Orleans, and how he really turned it on right before getting called up, indicative by his strikeout rate. Here’s his total number of strikeouts at every start in New Orleans:

May 18: 5.2 innings pitched; 3 strikeouts

May 23rd: 6 innings pitched; four strikeouts.

May 28th: 3.2 innings pitched; one strikeout

June 3rd: 5 innings pitched; 2 strikeouts

June 9th: 6 innings pitched; 7 strikeouts

June 14th: 5 innings pitched; seven strikeouts

June 21st: 5.1 innings pitched; six strikeouts

If you look at the statistics above, it’s pretty obvious that after June 3rd was when Pelfrey really turned it on and commenced to compile strikeouts. It’s pretty straightforward that this is all the results of a marked improvement in his slider. Further, just for the sake of more emphasis, here’s a comparision of his time with New Orleans in May and June.

May:  Strikeout Rate: 11.4% GB%: 53%

June: Strikeout Rate: 22.6% GB%: 65%

That’s a pretty dramatic difference.

 Now, I’ve mentioned many times before that it was my belief that he somehow lost his secondary stuff, particulary his breaking pitch, (slider) during the span from June to January of 2005 when he went through tiresome negotations with the Mets. After looking back at some recent scouting reports, however, I was completely wrong. Here’s one from draft day:

“His fastball is considered average and his chnageup is considered above average as well. His breaking ball, tighter than it was when he entered college, is his no. 3 pitch and needs work.”

So the fact is, despite a 2006 and over a quarter of 2007 in which he showed no sign of secondary stuff, literally two years to the day, (Ok not that close, but you get the point) Pelfrey has actually improved.

Now, I’m the first to dispell a prospect’s future because he doesn’t have that key breaking pitch- see my rankings in which I always had Philip Humber above Pelfrey, or called Pelfrey anonther Jose Capellan- but the fact is his slider has made huge leaps the way Joba Chamberlain’s has this season, and he finally has it. Now, is it likely he can be successful out of the rotation in 2007? No. But if you want to hinder his development for the sake of having a productive arm out of the bullpen, than let him throw his fastball for the rest of the year there. The Mets aren’t going to devote their resources to Adam Dunn or Mark Buehrle or Jermiane Dye, so if they’re that desperate for a bullpen arm, than deal the Caleb Stewart’s and Jon Niese’s of the world for Akinori Otsuka.