Thinking about Tobi Stoner

 

Part of what I consider a very solid 2006 draft class, Tobi Stoner was selected in the 16th round of the 2006 draft, and graduated from Davis and Elkins with the pedigree of a two-way player. (He hit .465 with eight HR’s his senior year.) He got off to a mediocre start at Brooklyn in 2006, but really turned it on towards the latter part of the year, as he only allowed five earned runs in his last eight starts, ultimately leading John Sickels of Minor League Ball to rank him 19th overall in the Mets system, saying he’s a, “Control artist who dominated the NY Penn League.”

Even though he was slightly old for his league, a 20% strikeout rate wasn’t exactly bad for a pitcher with the reputation of being a soft-tosser. He exhibited pinpoint control at Savannah, (2.94 K/BB ratio.) and his era. ( 3.61) wasn’t exactly indicative of his overall success, as he had terrible defense behind him. (.328 BABIP. 3.01 FIP)

The problems is, Stoner is in the same boat with many other prospects, and he’s not close to Mulvey’s level. While I still believe that Mulvey has a low ceiling, his GB% (58% at Binghamton thus far) proves he’s better than Stoner at fooling hitters into making bad contact, and also, having seen him pitch, he’s more of a sinking tilt on his fastball. Stoner just doesn’t seem to have that one exceelent skill, even if it was just a changeup, a cutter, or a real knack for inducing ground balls. He does, however, have command of all four of his pitches and seems willing to go to any pitch at any time, and that type of confidence can’t always be taught.

Conclusion: I’m not sure it’s fair to say that there are a lot of prospects who’re routinely slow to adjust to a new level, but if there’s, than Stoner seems to be embody the term. He started off average at Brooklyn in 2005, walked a few more batters than usual early on at Savannah, and in 15.2 innings so far at St. Lucie, he has allowed seven walks, six strikeouts, and compiled a 5.74 era. I say that he bottoms out at AA, but I hope I’m wrong. With the mets unwilling to surrender the “big three” combo in the upper minors, stoner makes for a nice trading chip.