For awhile now, John Sickels at Minor League Ball has been doing prospect smackdowns between similar players, often in terms of potential, and sometimes in relation to last name.
As a complementary version to Sickels work, we though it would be apropos to compare two prospects who’s parent club are currently playing against each other.
Philip Humber and Blake Hawksworth are both twenty-four years old, both have had tommy john surgery, and bounced back nicely last year. They’ve spent their entire season in AAA
Health: As we all known, despite claims to the contradictory, tommy john surgery can result in a huge loss of development time and ultimately leads to reduced velocity. Humber, a collegiate pitcher, had his surgery performed in the summer of 2005, after a dissapointing start at St. Lucie. Hawksworth, after a rocketing start to his career after being drsfted out of high school in 2001, pitched just nine games between 2004-2005. Staying healthy is a skill, and neither have that.
Adavantage: Rice is known for beating the heck out of its’ pitchers, and after a slight scare in the AFL, I’m going to give Hawksworth the edge, but not by much.
Stuff: Hawksworth is basically hitting 90 mph on the radar gun right now, and can dial it up to 92 mph on a good day. His changeup is his best pitch, while his curve is average at best.
Humber is dialing it more into the mid 90’s, while his curveball rates as a plus pitch. His command let’s him pitch backwards at times. A concern of his, likely to be left up to the jacket, is controlling his emotions.
Advantage: Hawksworth has the ability to be successful by keeping hitters off balance with an FB/Changeup combo in the minors, but Humber has more velocity and the breaking ball.
Polish/Peformance: While Hawkswroth has been partially successful in his attempt to become more of a GB pitcher, (44% GB% this year) it’s about even with Humbers. (46%) Hawksworth’s K rate is at an all time low- 12.2%, while Humbers, even if it’s dissapointing, is 19.9%, and he’s striking out hitters at a much better rate recently, as mentioned before.
Using Will Carroll’s suggested formula- K/PA*2-BB/PA, here are the results.
Humber: 34%
Hawksworth: 18.6%
Winner?: Humber has a much higher ceiling as of right now, and has outperformed Hawksworth in AAA. Both have their share of question marks, but Humber has a blatant advantage.
Filed under: Philip Humber, baseball
