I honestly thought about doing a comparision for both of them, but a quick look over both of their stats told the blatant truth: Joba Chamberlain is 10 miles ahead. Maybe not that much, but a lot, which is a testament to how far Chamberlain has come.
Of course, it’s hard to consider Chamberlain’s recent performace as his greatest stride, because he went from no-name to potential first round draftee from 2004 to 2005. Now, even the Yankees would say they were concerned about Chamberlain’s weight problem, since at the time, Ian kennedy’s arm was actually more of a concern.
What’s surprising is that the Yankees decided to promote Kennedy to AA Trenton first. Now mind you, I know that once the 2007 draftess- even though I’m confident the Yankees will drag out negotiations with Andrew Brackman in order to not have him throw this summer- but Chamberlain has outperformed Kennedy in every statistical category, and at 23, he’s less than a year older than Kennedy, but heck, that’s just one more small reason to promote him over Kennedy.
Now, a lot of people liken Kennedy as a number three starter with excellent control, and frankly, I believe he might be a capable of a little more. However, in 2005 at Nebraska, Chamberlain posted a 5.90 K/BB ratio, followed up by a 3.00 K/BB ratio in 2006. Now we know control doesn’t always transcend into command at the big league level, but Chabmerlain has shown little trouble with his control in 2007 at Tampa. (4.63 K/BB ratio)
So why exactly was Kennedy promoted to Trenton first? Well, it’s possible that the Yankees think he’s more polished (decent fastball, plus change, above average curve and slider) but to me, Chamberlain’s lack of a changeup means snap when you take into account his fastball, and more importantly, his breaking pitch, his slider, both have ace potential.
If you look at both of their stats this year, Chamberlain holds a clear advantage in strikeout rate (33.8% to 30.3%) and both of their walk rates are very close (chamberlains is about 7, while Kennedy’s is around 9.) I’ve always said that Will Carroll’s theory-K/PA*2- BB/PA discriminates against certain pitchers, no calculation is necesssry to know Chamberlain holds the clear advanatage.
While I have a hard time putting too much enphasis on BABIP and GB% at this level, especially considering that Chamberlain probably doesn’t have the sink on his fastball to keep up with his amazing rates this year (63%), it’s still worth noting that Kennedy’s is around 36%, and that his traditional numbers, specifically his era. has been somewhat of a result of luck (.266 BABIP) while Chamberlain’s stats are all pretty legitamite. (.287 BABIP.)
I find the C.C. Sabathia comps. for Chamberlain pretty accurate, and while I can’t think of a comp. for Kennedy, it’s pretty obvious Chamberlain should’ve been called up first. Expect King Joba up by the all-star break.
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