Projected 2008 Rosters

 Update: An astute reader pointed out to me that I didn’t include Dillon Gee. Why? Well that’s because I simply because his named managed to escape my mind while thinking of a 100 others. Although, it’s worth nothing that Gee had a year almost as dominating as Dylan Owen after compiling a 22.4% K rate and 3.6% BB Rate.

Given how dominating he was and the fact he was a collegiate pitcher, I have him heading to St. Lucie to start the year in place of Waechter. Waechter, did however, have a very successful year at Brooklyn, which makes it highly unlikely he repeats the level. Therefore, I have the 23 year old following a similar path of Tobi Stoner’s in 2008; staeting out at Savannah, and moving up to st. Lucie within a month or two. Vineyard, meanwhile, is the likely candidate to start in extended spring training and possible begin 2008 in Brooklyn.

Sorry for the huge gap between today’s post and my last one. i’ve been in school for about  a week now, and I’ve barely had any time to catch a ballgame, let alone keep the blog updated.

Since I happened to have some free time, I tried my best to conjecture what the 2008 opening day minor league rosters will look like. Here’s my first of many, many attemps I’ll probably make at this:

New Orleans

1B: Carp

2B: Hernandez

3B: Kiger

SS: Rivera

OF: Coles

OF: Hill

OF: Gomez

C: Arroyo

DH: Stewart

   

Rotation:

Humber

Mulvey

Bostick

Parnell

Vargas

  

Binghamton

1B: Evans

2B: Malo

3B. Murphy

SS: Coronado

OF: Martinez

OF: Wabick

OF: Holden

C: Nickeas

DH: Clark

Rotation:

Ruckle

Devaney

Niese

Stoner

Brown

    

St. Lucie:

1B: Thole

2B: Pellot

3B: Jimenez

SS: Garcia

OF: Maldanado

OF: R. Pena

OF: Kawal

C: McCraw

DH: Jacobs

Rotation:

Guerra

Owen

Durkin

Stinson

Gee

   

Savannah:

1B: Duda

2B: Veloz

3B: Lucas

SS: Lagares

OF: Carrera

OF: Reyes

OF: Zavala

C: F. Pena

DH: Zapata

Rotation:

Carr

Moviel

Dlouhy

Waechter

Polanco

 

A lot to digest. I didn’t bother taking a shot at the bullpen and bench of course, (although as you may’ve guessed, I strongly considered doing so) A lot of it is subjective, and of course, it’s my personal opinion.

 I’m prepared to handle any questions at: matthimelfarb@gmail.com

Clones Defeat Lowell 3-1

Dylan Owen had by far one of his most dominating outings of the year, striking out 11 in the seven innings, of work, while allowing just three hits and no walks, lowering his era. to 1.49

Will Morgan relieved Owens, and pitching two scoreless innings for the win.

Tied 1-1 in the bottom of the ninth, Matt Bouchard hit a two run walk off shot to ceal the game for the Clones.

I’m a Randolph Appeaser……

Yeah, I admit it, at least for this blog post.

One of the most controversial issues since Milledge’s return- particulary after Randolph issued a statement saying that Green’s playing time would “decrease”- is just how much Milledgw ould actually play.

So, in hindsight, what Randolph meant was Milledge would play against lefty’s while Green would get the majority of at-bats against right handers.

This has come under some harsh criticism from eveyone from any school of thought.  but for once let’s forget the fact we simply like the rookie and not the typical “veteran” “who gives to the game” and does “the little things.”

Right now, Green has been egregiously bad against left handers- .532 OPS. 52 OPS.+. Against southpaws, on the other hand, he has an OPS. of .813 and OPS.+ of 109. This includes two legitamite sample sizes. He’s also looked far more comfortable with less playing time.

Milledge has a .966 OPS. against left handers and OPS.+ of 140. He also has a .676 OPS. and 88 OPS.+ against right handers, and as a bonus his BABIP is .353. His BB/K ratio is 3:25.

Of course, he only has 95 at-bats against leftys. While I understand that’s a bit of a small sample size, Milledge hasn’t never been spectacular against right handers in the minors:

 2006 Norfolk: .805 OPS. 10:51 BB/K ratio

 2005: Binghamton .835 OPS. 9/33 BB/K ratio.

Now, I understand OPS. can be slightly overrated in the minors since many young players are still acquiring power, but his BB/K ratio’s aren’t pretty at any level.

The problem is, contrary to popular belief, Milledge has been a gold glover in RF this season, and decnet in left, while Green is downright awful on defense.

So, that’s the game the Mets will have to play. an the defensive gains subsidize for Milledge’s offensive performance?

Next year, I don’t think there’s any doubting Milledge will play everyday, and make the necessary adjustments against right handers.

Personally, I’d like to see Milledge get a shot. But it certainly isn’t as obvious as people make it out to be.

Thoughts?

Cyclones Defeat Damn Yankees 5-0

The Cyclones (46-24) defeated the Staten Island Yankees (44-27) by a score of 5-0 last night. By defeating the Yanks, the Cyclones lowered their magic number to 2, with 4 games left to play.

In laymans terms, it means that any combination of Cyclones wins and Yankees losses equaling 2, and the Cyclones clinch first place. The Cyclones are already guaranteed at least a wild card seed.

Give a special bobblehead to Caracas, Venezuela native C Cesar Cordido. The recent arrival from Kingsport went 2-3 with a double and 2 RBI.
This game recap, as always, was provided by El juglar

RHP Nick Carr (5-2) had an outstanding game, going 7 innings, allowing 0 runs on 3 hits, walking 3 and striking out 4.

Next game is tonight at 7:10 in Staten Island. A Cyclones win clinches the McNamara Division.

Kevin Mulvey Makes AAA Debut

Anonthet typical Kevin Mulvey esque outing last night, only it’s notable considering it was his very first start in AAA. He threw six innings of shutout ball, allowing just two hits- none of which were XBH- and he compiled just three strikeouts. Nearly half of the batted balls he allowed came on grounders.

I still think the question about his ceiling will be up in the air, but before getting called up, he started to generate a decent amount of K’s- the say his poise has just gotten better as the year’s gone on- and this is just his first full year in the minors. In his last start against Trenton, he really showed some flashes of dominance, striking out 11 in six innings. I hate to call him a Greg Maddux type pitcher, but there’s a lot more reasons to get excited about him now than when the Mets drafted a him just a year back.

St. Lucie Mets Clinch Division

Despite the trades that sent Sean Henry and Jose Castro to the Reds for Jeff Conine, the St. Lucie Mets clinched the division last night by defeating daytona last night 6-3.

Probably more people actually knew about carlos Gomez getting ejected after getting hit by a pitch last night, although Deolis Guerra, whom the Mets have stretched out as of late, was among the highlights last night, throiwng 5.1 innings of work, allowing three earned runs on seven hits, two strikeouts, and one walk.

The Florida State League playoffs being September 4th, when the Mets will take on Brevard County Manatees. Normally during the minor league playoffs, teams try and promote some of their top pitching prospects to get them playoff expierence. It’ll be interesting to see if they give their starters five days of rest and ultimately sacrafice a win or so. Eric Brown has pitched better as of late, and Guerra and niese deserve a shot. No one in the Savannah rotation really warrants a promotion at this point, although there’s a small chance Dylan owen gets a shot.

Collazo to Get the Call When Rosters Expand

 Yeah, that’s right. The Mets organization actually tried to hand over some responsibility to a palyer doing well in the minor leagues instead of going out and acquiring some outdated veteran.

 Despite a steroid suspension in 2005, there’s no arguing just how good Collazo’s been. His 4.8% BB rate is the only number that really stands out as a whole, (and of course his 2.46 era.) but he’s been outstanding in the month of August:

24 IP 5.7% BB rate 20.5% K rate 50% GB% O.OO era.

Collazo even managed to compile 5.1 innings of work in his last outing on August 28th, after Mike Pelfrey, who started the game, left with “fatigue.” What’s most impressive his is HR Rate of 0.48, in what’s predominantly a hitter’s league. I wish I could tell you more than just list stats, but you have to wonder why teams are so easy to commit millions of dollars to pitchers like Schioenweis and not give kids like Collazo a shot.

‘Clones fall to Aberdeen 8-1, maintain home field advantage for now

This recap is brought to you by El Juglar of Tornadic Activity: a Cyclones blog.

The Brooklyn Cyclones (43-22) fell to the Aberdeen Ironbirds (30-38) last night by a score of 8-1 in Aberdeen.

The Cyclones’ sole run came in the 2nd off a SS Matt Bouchard double.

RHP Tim Stronach (3-2) is your losing pitcher. The righty went innings, allowing 3 runs off 4 hits, walking 3 and striking out 3.

Following last night’s action, the Cyclones now hold a 2.5 game lead over the Staten Island Yankees in the McNamera Division. If the season were to end today, they Cyclones would presumeably hold homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, though as the team with the best record, they have the right to wave homefield advantage (don’t ask me why).

The Cyclones are 43-22, the Pinckney Division leading Auburn Doubledays are 42-26, which means Auburn is 1 back in the win column but 4 back in the loss column.

The New York Penn League plays best of three playoff series, where the team with homefield advantage plays games 2 and 3 at home and game 1 on the road. Assuming that the Cyclones maintain homefield advantage, the schedule should look like this for the first round

Sept. 7 Last game

Sept. 8 Off

Sept. 9 At visitor

Sept. 10 At Brooklyn

Sept. 11 At Brooklyn

Pre-Season Prospect Rankings in Review Part One

I decided to start out with John Sickels rankings from Minor League Ball, since after all, his site is where I got the idea from. Instead of looking back at Sickel’s pre-season rankins for all 30 teams, we’re going to look at all the notable Mets rankings fabricated last off-season.

I can’t post the comments/blurbs that came with each player so I don’t break any copyright laws, but here are his rankings:

1. Fernando Martinez

2. Mike Pelfrey

3. Philip Humber

4. Carlos Gomez

5. Jon Niese

6. Deolis Guerra

7. Kevin mulvey

8. Joe Smith

9. Mike Carp

10. Alay Soler

11. Adam Bostick

12. Josh Stinson

13. Sean Henry

14. Mike Devaney

15. Nick Evans

16. Shawn Bowman

17. Michel Abreu

18. Stephen Holmes

19. Tobi Stoner

20. Brandon Nall

21. Dustin Martin

Hard to really knock Sickels since his rankings were likely pretty similar to a lot of other people’s, although there are certainly far more mistakes than solid picks.

One of the main ways I judge these publications is by their foresight. So here’s how I look at his list: Humber didn’t make too much progress, by so many people had him high up so I can’t blame him for that. His comments on Niese were, “Projectable lefty is a personal favorite”. His stuff, particulary his curve improved, but I believe that Sickels was among the group that expected Niese to really break out, and his ceiling is still very much in doubt- more so than last year- this season. Bobby Parnell was include on his “others of note list,” and he’s now arguably a top 10 prospect in the Mets system, but there wasn’t much to suggests he’d make as much progress as he has this year aside from the fact he was slowed by an oblique strain with Hagerstown in 2006. Stephen Holmes unexpectedly quite baseball, believe to be the result of one of his friends’ suicide.

So, to wrap this up, the real mistakes were Shawn Bowman at 16. I can see why, having wrote this in December, he expected better things after Bowman won player of the month award in November in the Nicaragua league, but a thrid straight year of back injuries has his carrer seriously in doubt. Nick Evans is better than all the players listed above him going up th number 10, while Brandon Nall seems like he’ll be a non factor this stage. Daniel Murphy was nowhere to be found, nor was Jacob Ruckle, who really should’ve been.

So, Sickels didn’t mange to make too many accurate predictions, but this isn’t to say he’s a bad analyst by any stretch, he just caught a bit of a tough break with the Mets.

I have Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus left to go. If you know of any others, please let me know.

Content Update

Most team oriented prospect blogs out there usually take the entire off-season to draw some final conclusions on their systems players, but since I’m going to try to keep C.N. updated as prevalently as possible, I’m going to look into implementing some original ideas. Here’s what I’m planning for at least the next few months:

Continued Coverage of the Cyclones until their season ends

Pre-Season rankings in Review (Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, etc.)

AFL Coverage

Outfield Prospect Rankings

Infield Prospect Rankings

Lower Minors Pitching Prospect Rankings (Savannah, Brooklyn, GCL Mets)

Upper Minors Pitching Prospect Rankings (New Orleans, Binghamton, St. Lucie

Catching Prospect Rankings

 NL East Rankings

That’s basically what I have right now. Expect the Pre-Season rankings in review to be something I touch on soon. The rankings that I plan on doing will include some detailed analysis. Ulitimately, once I finish the tier rankings, that’ll help me put together my my major list at the end. (Could include 30, 40, or even 50 players) I’ll probably have the lower minors pitching rankings out soon, although other tier rankings will be put on hold for at least a month, so I can get a better look at some guys who might be called up when rosters expand. Everything else will pretty much fall in place. Of course, it isn’t enough, so that’s where you can help if you want to see this blog to continue going. If you have any ideas, feel free to post them in the comments section below or contact me at: matthimelfarb@gmail.com. All help is appreciated.